Dealer Churn Prediction
Strategizing retention improvement by estimating each subscribed dealer's propensity to churn
Problem Statement
A US-based e-classifieds company was experiencing high churn of dealers subscribed to their platform and wanted to explore ways to improve retention. A churn propensity predictive model was required to identify dealers that are at high-risk of churning and devise intervention measures accordingly.
Challenges
- Making churn propensity scores and insights easily interpretable for non-technical sales representatives
- Processing and analyzing massive clickstream data to identify meaningful churn drivers while filtering out noise.
- Ensuring that predictions are generated early enough for the sales team to take proactive intervention measures before dealers churn.
Solution
Summary
As the lead consultant and client point-of-contact on the project, I managed analytics & predictive modeling workflow in which we designed a supervised machine learning solution to predict dealer churn. Each dealer was assigned a churn propensity score based on the model probabilities and further descriptive analytics was conducted to profile each dealer. The propensity model was deployed on-premises to refresh the propensity scores periodically. A dashboard was deployed on the client's Salesforce platform to give reps access to insights.
Approach
- Brainstorming and stakeholders interviews to build hypotheses around potential drivers of churn
- Gathering, cleaning and exploratory analysis of clickstream data including dealer ads, dealer interactions with leads, sales calls and dealer login activity
- Differentiating dealers by segment and building separate churn propensity models for each segment using Logistic Regression
- Visualizations and dashboard design for end-user consumption
- Prioritization framework and identification of areas of highest opportunity
- System integration of deliverables including model deployment and dashboard deployment on the client's Salesforce CRM
Deliverables
- Predictive model to estimate churn propensity
- ML pipeline in production for periodic data refreshes
- Dashboard deployed using Salesforce Canvas
- Periodic Insights Reports
Modeling Approach
Prioritization Framework
Results & Impact
Estimated dealer churn reduction
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